You’re not alone if you’re unsure how confident your team is about achieving its OKRs this quarter. Many teams operate on hope rather than visibility. Confidence Scoring offers a way to break that cycle.
OKR coach Tim Newbold tells us Confidence Scoring isn’t just a number, and it’s a practical framework for better execution, increased clarity, and stronger team alignment. When used correctly, it turns vague status updates into real-time strategic insights.
Everyone has ideas. They may be too busy or lack the confidence or technical ability to carry them out. But I want to carry them out. It is a matter of getting up and doing it.
What is Confidence Scoring?
Confidence Scoring is the practice of rating how likely a team is to achieve a specific Key Result (KR) on a scale of 0 to 1. During weekly OKR check-ins, each KR is reviewed not just by progress but by perceived achievability.
Here’s how the scoring typically breaks down:
- 0.9 – 1.0 — High confidence the KR will be achieved
- 0.6 – 0.8 — Likely to be achieved or come close
- 0.4 – 0.5 — Challenging; may require help
- 0 – 0.3 — Unlikely to be achieved; intervention required
This method, advocated by Tim Newbold, allows teams to regularly pressure-test their execution path and uncover underlying assumptions early.
Start using Confidence Scoring today to uncover risks and strengthen your OKR execution
Why Confidence Scores Matter
According to Newbold, scoring confidence unlocks five leadership benefits:
- Exposes Risks Early: If confidence is low, leaders can address issues before it’s too late.
- Uncovers Assumptions: Varying scores across the team can surface unspoken risks or dependencies.
- Drives Accountability: Publicly scoring and explaining builds team ownership.
- Sparks Constructive Conflict: Differing views generate rich discussion and better decisions.
- Enables Course Correction: If confidence drops, teams can pivot or reallocate resources immediately.
A Simple Analogy: Steve and the 10-Meter Ball
Newbold uses a memorable analogy: Imagine Steve, who wants to throw a ball 10 meters high by quarter-end. Today, he can manage 4 meters. Without any further context, how far do you think he’ll get?
Some say 7 meters, others 5. That spread in opinion? It’s gold. It reveals assumptions about Steve’s training, environment, or resources. Just like with OKRs, different levels of confidence become the starting point for valuable team dialogue.
How to Run Confidence Scoring in Weekly Check-ins
Incorporate these steps into your regular OKR review rhythm:
- Score Each KR: Each team member assigns a score from 0 to 1.
- Justify the Score: Ask everyone to briefly explain their rationale.
- Discuss Discrepancies: Highlight differing views to uncover blind spots.
- Default to Caution: If in doubt, adopt the lower score to prompt action.
- Update Weekly: Track trends to see if confidence is rising or falling.
Building a Culture of Stretch and Learning
Confidence Scoring is not about chasing 1.0 scores. In fact, if every score is consistently 1.0, it could indicate your goals aren’t ambitious enough.
Newbold advocates for setting stretch goals and building a culture where failure, learning, and adjustment are not just allowed but expected. Weekly scoring helps normalize this.
Project Planning and Execution: Don’t Wait for the Big Bang
One of the traps OKR leaders fall into is deferring delivery until the very end of the quarter. As seen in Newbold’s guidance, break your work into increments:
credit by: Tim Newbold
| Approach | Description | Value Delivery Style | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Bang | All work is done and released at the end. | None until the very end | Simple planning | High risk, no feedback loops, failure discovered too late |
| Big Increments | Work is released in large chunks at spaced intervals. | Irregular and delayed | Better than Big Bang, partial validation is possible | Still slow to adapt, feedback lag |
| Small Increments | Value is delivered frequently in small releases. | Consistent, steady | Enables continuous learning and iteration | Requires an agile mindset and team discipline |
| Small + High Value First | Delivers the most valuable work early, then continues incrementally. | Maximum early impact | High ROI quickly, faster feedback, better prioritization | Needs clarity on what’s high value early on |
Conclusion
Confidence Scoring transforms OKRs from static plans into dynamic, data-informed execution. By surfacing uncertainty, it fuels the conversations that lead to better planning, faster pivots, and stronger team performance. As Tim Newbold says, “Confidence is not about being sure. It’s about being clear.”
Start your Confidence Scoring practice today, and shift your OKR reviews from reporting to real-time decision-making.
Want to see it in action? Embed Confidence Scoring in your Profit.co weekly check-ins and transform your OKR execution
FAQs
1. What is Confidence Scoring in OKRs?
A practice where teams rate how likely they are to achieve each Key Result on a 0–1 scale.
2. How often should Confidence Scores be reviewed?
Weekly, during your regular OKR check-in.
3. What if team members disagree on a score?
Use the disagreement to uncover assumptions. Start with the lower score and explore why the discrepancy exists.
4. Is scoring subjective?
Yes but it’s precisely that subjectivity that makes it valuable. It sparks alignment and honest discussion.
5. Should we always aim for 1.0?
Not necessarily. OKRs are designed to be ambitious. Scores in the 0.6–0.8 range typically signal good stretch alignment.
How to use this with your team
- Do the scoring together get everyone’s take.
- Ask people to explain why they picked their score.
- If opinions clash, lean toward the lower score better safe than sorry.
- Watch for low scores those are your “help needed” flags.
Here’s the bigger picture
OKRs aren’t supposed to be easy wins. If your team thinks hitting every goal perfectly is normal, they might be playing it too safe.
Confidence scoring helps your team get comfortable with stretching, learning from mistakes, and adapting along the way. It makes the uncertainty clear and manageable.
Start small: ask your team to rate confidence every week. Use those scores to open honest chats and make smarter moves.
Because when it comes to OKRs, confidence isn’t luck it’s clarity.